UFC - Road to UFC Season 5: Shanghai Semifinals

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2026-08-28 · picks locked Aug 26, 17:00 UTC · CORTEX SHARP V10 ·

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UFC - Road to UFC Season 5: Shanghai Semifinals · 2026-08-28
Rabindra Dhant
over Kasib Murdoch
market 34.2% best: BetOnline.ag +186 VALUE +47% EV 3u SHALLOW SAMPLE
57.0%
model win prob
Rabindra Dhant VS Kasib Murdoch
Rabindra Dhant57%
Kasib Murdoch
SLIGHT LEAN GREAT PRICE Bet (set your budget above) at BetOnline.ag

Dhant has faced the tougher slate of opponents, and Dhant rates higher on our whole-career strength rating. Close fight, we lean Dhant at 60%. Shallow UFC sample on our side of this one, size accordingly. Analyst check: Bout is confirmed with no withdrawal or weight news; Murdoch's control-heavy wrestling shown in his quarterfinal is a live path against the rangier Dhant, warranting a slight trim of the model's lean.

shop the line: 2 books priced
BetOnline.ag +186Bovada +175
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UFC Fight Night 286 - Nurmagomedov vs. Song · 2026-08-29
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Every pick carries the same set of numbers. Here is what each one means and why it is there.

73.5%

Our calibrated probability that the pick wins. When we say 75%, picks like it have historically won about 77% of the time. The calibration table on the record page is the receipt.

market 61.0%

What the betting market thinks, with the bookmaker's margin stripped out. The gap between our number and this one is the whole product.

best: FanDuel -140

The sportsbook currently paying the most on our side. Same bet, better price. Line shopping is free money most bettors leave on the table.

line 55.0% → 58.1%

Line movement since we locked. The market's no-vig number on our side at lock time versus right now. Green means the line is chasing our pick: the early price members got is already gone. That gap is why picks lock Friday.

VALUE +12% EV

Expected value. Flagged only when the price is good enough that the bet profits long term even after we shade our number toward the market's. These are the picks people pay for.

2u

Suggested relative size. 1u means 1% of the money you set aside for betting, so a $2,000 bankroll makes 2u a $40 bet. Type your bankroll in the box at the top of this page and every tag converts to dollars for you. Sized by how big our edge is (quarter Kelly), capped at 3u so no single fight can hurt you. No tag means no edge at today's price: pass. New to all of this? The two minute guide explains it in plain English. Analytics, not betting instructions.

SHALLOW SAMPLE

The pick has thin UFC data behind it and our number disagrees hard with the market. We show it anyway and tell you to size with care. Honesty beats polish.

room 71% w/ brain

How the membership's own calls split on the fight, once at least three members have called it. Social proof, not science. The model does not take votes.

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Fighter Name

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locked Jul 12, 03:00 UTC

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