CAGEThe Record
Every graded pick we've ever made. Timestamped before the fight, graded after. Nothing removed, ever.
Following only the recommended bets
-$73
43-40 on 83 recommended bets, -3.7% return on money staked, on a $1,000 bankroll at the locked fair price.
The scoreboard below counts EVERY prediction, wins and losses alike; that is the receipts. This line is what the bet tags on the picks page actually paid. Most picks carry no bet tag: no edge at the price means no bet, and coin flips stay watched, not wagered. Recompute it yourself from the raw data below.
191
picks graded
123
winners
64.4%
hit rate
65.1%
pre-launch validation (897 bouts)
+$803
flat $100 per pick (4.6% roi)
71/106
locked picks that beat the closing line
Flat-bet line assumes $100 on every graded pick at the fair no-vig market price recorded when the pick locked (for the few picks locked before the books priced the bout, the closing line is used instead). Prices at real books differ. Analytics, not betting instructions.
UFC Fight Night 291 - Buckley vs. Malott · 2026-10-17
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Melissa Croden
over Chelsea Chandler
Kyle Daukaus
over Marc-Andre Barriault
Erin Blanchfield
over Jasmine Jasudavicius
Nick Galanti
over Julien Leblanc
Cristian Perez
over Kyle Nelson
Katlyn Cerminara
over Mackenzie Stiller
Joaquin Buckley
over Mike Malott
Steven Koslow
over Chad Anheliger
Timothy Cuamba
over Louis Jourdain
Tanner Boser
over Jhonata Diniz
Mandel Nallo
over Nate Landwehr
Su Young You
over Cody Chovancek
UFC Fight Night 290 - Allen vs. Duncan · 2026-10-10
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Felipe Franco
over Brendson Ribeiro
Richard Harris
over Allen Frye
Julius Walker
over Gerald Meerschaert
Lupita Godinez
over Ketlen Souza
Leon Shahbazyan
over Niko Price
Andre Fili
over Kai Kamaka III
Francisco Prado
over Ismael Bonfim
Christian Leroy Duncan
over Brendan Allen
Melissa Gatto
over Ernesta Kareckaite
Alice Pereira
over Darya Zheleznyakova
Jai Herbert
over Matheus Camilo
Malcolm Wellmaker
over Otari Tanzilovi
UFC 332 - Silva vs. Wang · 2026-10-03
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Jacobe Smith
over Bruce Whitehead
Payton Talbott
over Deiveson Figueiredo
Marcus McGhee
over Anthony Romero
Alexander Hernandez
over Rafael dos Anjos
Damian Pinas
over Andrey Pulyaev
Anthony Wint
over Lucas Armand
Marcus McGhee
over Bernardo Sopai
Ismail Naurdiev
over Marvin Vettori
Kalinn Williams
over Roberto Soldic
Imanol Rodriguez
over Alden Coria
Cong Wang
over Natalia Silva
Ateba Abega Gautier
over Roman Kopylov
Esteban Ribovics
over King Green
Johnny Walker
over Mick Parkin
Court McGee
over Eric Nolan
UFC Fight Night 289 - Rosas Jr. vs. Barcelos · 2026-09-26
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Rinya Nakamura
over Brady Hiestand
Yazmin Jauregui
over Vanessa Demopoulos
Montel Jackson
over Ricky Simon
John Castaneda
over Heili Alateng
Mehemmedali Osmanli
over Ilimbek Akylbek Uulu
Rodolfo Bellato
over Christian Edwards
Luis Hernandez
over Sedriques Dumas
Ailin Perez
over Norma Dumont
Melissa Amaya
over Valesca Machado
Elves Brener
over Josiah Harrell
Raoni Barcelos
over Raul Rosas Jr.
Robert Bryczek
over Rodolfo Vieira
Sedriques Dumas
over Mickey Gall
UFC 331 - Van vs. Pantoja 2 · 2026-09-19
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Gable Steveson
over Sean Sharaf
Ryan Gandra
over Osman Diaz
Joanderson Brito
over Giga Chikadze
Arman Tsarukyan
over Mauricio Ruffy
Robelis Despaigne
over Tai Tuivasa
Renato Carneiro
over Brian Ortega
Charles Jourdain
over Marlon Vera
Iwo Baraniewski
over Alonzo Menifield
Casey O'Neill
over Eduarda Moura
Joshua Van
over Alexandre Pantoja
Edmen Shahbazyan
over Brunno Ferreira
Joo Sang Yoo
over Michael Aswell
Doo Ho Choi
over Patricio Freire
UFC Fight Night 288 - Noche UFC 4 · 2026-09-12
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Yousri Belgaroui
over Djorden Santos
Ignacio Bahamondes
over Muslim Salikhov
Manon Fiorot
over Alexa Grasso
Jean Silva
over Jose Delgado
David Martinez
over Dan Ige
Edgar Chairez
over Tim Elliott
Waldo Cortes-Acosta
over Curtis Blaydes
Rafa Garcia
over Zhu Rong
Sean King
over Jessie Rosas
Regina Tarin
over J.J. Aldrich
Marwan Rahiki
over Tommy McMillen
Joseph Morales
over Brandon Moreno
Thomas Gantt
over Drakkar Klose
UFC Fight Night 287 - Hooker vs. Parnasse · 2026-09-05
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Mario Pinto
over Ryan Spann
Nathaniel Wood
over Pavel Andrusca
Oumar Sy
over Modestas Bukauskas
Kurtis Campbell
over Trevor Peek
Luis Felipe Dias
over Matthieu Letho Duclos
Losene Keita
over Muhammadjon Naimov
Nora Cornolle
over Klaudia Sygula
Felipe Lima
over Morgan Charriere
Fabia Sintes
over Michael Aljarouj
Daniil Donchenko
over Punahele Soriano
Michael Page
over Nursulton Ruziboev
Salahdine Parnasse
over Dan Hooker
Axel Sola
over Fares Ziam
UFC Fight Night 286 - Nurmagomedov vs. Song · 2026-08-29
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Rei Tsuruya
over Kevin Borjas
Umar Nurmagomedov
over Yadong Song
Kai Asakura
over Qileng Aori
Sean Woodson
over Jack Jenkins
Meng Ding
over Cameron Nelson
Denise Gomes
over Xiaonan Yan
Long Xiao
over Francesco Nuzzi
Su Mudaerji
over Alex Perez
Namsrai Batbayar
over Andre Lima
Nilson Rojas
over Bilal Hasan
Jingnan Xiong
over Julia Polastri
UFC - Road to UFC Season 5: Shanghai Semifinals · 2026-08-28
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Rabindra Dhant
over Kasib Murdoch
Maheshate Hayisaer
over Darrius Flowers
Farida Abdueva
over Bo Hyun Park
Ryo Tajima
over Chungreng Koren
Machi Fukuda
over Bo Meng
Joseph Larcinese
over Takaya Suzuki
UFC Fight Night 285 - Hernandez vs. Rodrigues · 2026-08-22
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Shanelle Dyer
over Elise Reed
Mason Jones
over MarQuel Mederos
Marcio Barbosa
over Ryan Kuse
Anthony Hernandez
over Gregory Rodrigues
Reinier de Ridder
over Roman Dolidze
Gauge Young
over Stanley Dorsainvil
Lerryan Douglas
over Jamall Emmers
Kennedy Nzechukwu
over Shamil Gaziev
Anthony Wint
over Terrance Chatman
Chris Padilla
over Nasrat Haqparast
Serghei Spivac
over Vitor Petrino
Carli Judice
over Jeisla Chaves
Jackson McVey
over Wesley Schultz
UFC 330 - Makhachev vs. Garry · 2026-08-15
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Myktybek Orolbai
over Jeremiah Wells
Islam Makhachev
over Ian Garry
Esteban Ribovics
over Edson Barboza
Joel Alvarez
over Chidi Njokuani
Vicente Luque
over Tresean Gore
Donte Johnson
over Eric McConico
Charles Johnson
over Eduardo Henrique
Erin Blanchfield
over Jasmine Jasudavicius
Lucas Fernando
over Rafael Tobias
Mackenzie Dern
over Gillian Robertson
Mansur Abdul-Malik
over Dustin Stoltzfus
Kaue Fernandes
over Jalin Turner
Neil Magny
over Ramiz Brahimaj
Geoff Neal
over Chidi Njokuani
UFC Fight Night 284 - Gamrot vs. Salkilld · 2026-08-08
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Yadier Del Valle
over Darren Elkins
Alexia Thainara
over Amanda Lemos
Juliana Miller
over Ravena Oliveira
Manoel Sousa
over Richie Miranda
Steven Asplund
over Guilherme Pat
Ty Cole Miller
over Billy Goff
Diego Ferreira
over Billy Quarantillo
Miles Johns
over Gianni Vazquez
Miles Johns
over Jessie Rosas
Diyar Nurgozhay
over Bruno Lopes
Mateusz Gamrot
over Quillan Salkilld
Carol Foro
over Giovanna Canuto
Jose Luiz
over Louie Sutherland
UFC Fight Night 283 - Medic vs. Rodriguez · 2026-08-01
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Mateusz Rebecki
over Kyle Prepolec
Nina Nikolija Milosevic
over Hailey Cowan
Navajo Stirling
over Jan Blachowicz
Bogdan Grad
over Dennis Buzukja
Jovan Leka
over Alexander Poppeck
Michael Oliveira
over Oban Elliott
Uros Medic
over Daniel Rodriguez
Ludovit Klein
over Tofiq Musayev
Milos Janicic
over Noah Gugnon
Dusko Todorovic
over Robert Valentin
Aleksandar Rakic
over Marcin Tybura
Borislav Nikolic
over Mark Vologdin
Marina Spasic
over Stephanie Luciano
UFC Fight Night 282 - Ankalaev vs. Guskov · 2026-07-25
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Islam Dulatov
over Wellington Turman
Abdul Hussein
over Cody Gibson
Valter Walker
over Thomas Petersen
Magomed Tuchalov
over Brendson Ribeiro
Axel Sola
over Ismael Bonfim
Magomed Ankalaev
over Bogdan Guskov
Steve Erceg
over Ramazonbek Temirov
Saygid Izagakhmaev
over Abubakar Vagaev
Sam Patterson
over Santiago Ponzinibbio
Tyrell Fortune
over Rizvan Kuniev
Muhammad Said
over Dustin Jacoby
Nurullo Aliev
over Mike Davis
UFC Fight Night 281 - Du Plessis vs. Usman · 2026-07-18
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Jacobe Smith
over Kevin Holland
Chase Hooper
over Mitch Ramirez
Alden Coria
over Stewart Nicoll
Christian Leroy Duncan
over Jared Cannonier
Dione Barbosa
over Anna Melisano
Dricus Du Plessis
over Kamaru Usman
Fatima Kline
over Tabatha Ricci
Jose Delgado
over Austin Bashi
Seok Hyeon Ko
over Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani
Alvin Hines
over Richard Harris
Tommy McMillen
over Alberto Montes
Felipe Franco
over Levi Rodrigues
Ezra Elliott
over Damien Anderson
UFC 329 - McGregor vs. Holloway 2 · 2026-07-11
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Damian Pinas
over Cesar Almeida
Max Holloway
over Conor McGregor
Lone'er Kavanagh
over Brandon Royval
Gable Steveson
over Elisha Ellison
Nikita Krylov
over Robert Whittaker
Alessandro Costa
over Cody Durden
Mario Bautista
over Cory Sandhagen
Terrance McKinney
over King Green
Luke Riley
over Kai Kamaka III
Farid Basharat
over John Garza
Ryan Gandra
over Zachary Reese
Benoit St. Denis
over Paddy Pimblett
Cong Wang
over Tracy Cortez
Adrian Yanez
over Cody Garbrandt
Run the receipts
Do not take our word for the record above. Replay it. Pick a bankroll and a strategy, and this chart walks through every graded pick in order, at the fair no-vig price recorded when each pick locked. Losses included, obviously.
...
Fair no-vig prices, not real book prices, and past picks do not predict future ones. Analytics, not betting instructions.
Audit us
The whole ledger is machine readable: every pick with its lock timestamp, our probability, the market at lock, the closing line, and the result. Pull it, run your own numbers, catch us if you can. No tout service offers this because no tout service could survive it.
curl https://cagemath.com/api/recordHow honest is the number itself?
Accuracy alone can be gamed by only picking favorites. The harder test is calibration: when we say a percentage, does reality agree? Measured on 897 blind predictions before launch:
| When the model says | The pick actually wins |
|---|---|
| 50-59% | 56.9% |
| 60-69% | 68.8% |
| 70-79% | 76.6% |
The same test, running live
The table above was the pre-launch exam. This one rebuilds itself from the public ledger as it grows, so you can watch the calibration prove itself (or not) in real time. Small samples show as counts; percentages have to be earned.
| When we said | Record so far | Hit rate |
|---|---|---|
| 50-59% | 53/90 | 58.9% |
| 60-69% | 32/48 | 66.7% |
| 70-79% | 24/35 | 68.6% |
| 80%+ | 14/18 | 77.8% |
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